Can AR and VR become a mainstream technology?
Panelists:
- Eren Aksu, Chief Opportunity Creator, Emblematic Group
- Dylan Thuras, founder, Atlas Obscura
- Ela Topcuoglu, Start VR
- Robert Hernandez, professor, USC Annenberg
Moderator:
- Gabriel Kahn, professor, USC Annenberg
This event is part of a four-part series called The Lens of Disruption.
How has the technology of AR evolved? Where can we foresee it going from here?
Eren Aksu explains that he worked on the hardware end of this emerging technology, and he jumped into working with this technology starting in 2011. When it came to custom made headsets, each lens cost thousands of dollars and the whole system cost upwards of $100k in 2013–2014. After Facebook bought Oculus, there was heavier investment in hardware by Sony, Google, Lenova, and HTCC. Clearly, these high prices and affordability posed a problem if the technology was ever going to be successfully available to the public.
These investments worked, and quickly. Headsets came down in price from the thousands to just $200-$300 in only 3 years.
I see this tech potentially becoming mainstream in 3-4 year’s time, says Aksu. We’ve accomplished this content being produced more cheaply, but we still have a long way until it becomes part of the mainstream. This technology is developing and moving very fast, and he predicts that in the future we’ll see something the size as eyeglasses or potentially worn the same way, as today’s clunky headset is too impractical.
What is involved in putting content like this together?
Ela Topcuoglu came into working with VR after a career in film, and produced VR for a range of customers.
90% of my job is trying to get money in VR, she says. There is a cycle at the moment that’s hard to break: people aren’t spending and consuming VR since the content is currently not there, and as a result, customer money isn’t pooling to create more, better content.
While platforms sometimes give out money and brands sometimes want to throw in, they’re currently timid because a lot of it is experimental, and additionally it’s difficult to measure engagement with our current technology of one-on-one headsets.
The industry is also experiencing a lack of interest. People were spending more when this technology first came out and was exciting and cutting edge. However, that shiny “new” factor is starting to fade now in an effect called novelty fatigue, and lately there has been a huge push for more interaction.
You cannot produce VR like you make movies, says Topcuoglu. What some might not understand about it is that it’s a completely different language, and this involves new talent coming together to work on these projects, especially ideas that involve gaming.
What is Atlas Obscura?
Dylan Thuras gave us some insight into his VR-based travel media startup, with a database of locations around the world.
Atlas Obscura differs from other travel VR in a few fundamental ways. Other travel VR is typically going and sticking down a 360° camera at a location, and then the cameraman hides from the shot. It’s not a great experience to just look at a beach this way, and it’s very different than reality.
Thuras compares the experience Atlas offers to Mist, another travel game. “We wanted more agency as the viewer can make choices, follow different paths, and discover things”, he says. This was something that felt more right. However, most of Gear VR consists of escape games, and therefore it’s harder to get customers engaged in semi-educational content about different locations.
How does this media value translate to brands, publishers, or others?
Topcuoglu explains that there’s new vernacular when it comes to VR. Instead of “viewer”, we like to say “visitor”. This is because the person has a purpose in the space, and this purpose comes from their interactivity.
In order to adjust to VR, we have to get rid of the “story telling” aspect we so often see in film.
“We are the creator of worlds, the visitor is their own storyteller.” - Topcuoglu
If we can make the interactivity intuitive instead of just pressing buttons or moving away like we see in most video games, the goal is to create an environment where I felt emotionally motivated to interact or touch something instead of being so obviously lead in one direction, she explains. The goal is to feel like no is trying to frame the story for the visitor, and three different people will all get something different out of the experience.
Robert Hernandez says that this type of laissez faire approach already exists in some video games, such as Grand Theft Auto where you can go anywhere in that world and nothing has to hit you over the head saying “pick this up!”
Thuras agrees that video games currently have a lot of these subtle clues already. Now, VR just needs to take the same approach. Other ways this is well utilized is in certain 360° video where the visitor can get an accurate sense of scale, or a good sense of the location that you wouldn’t otherwise be able to access, such as Chernobyl, or something called Blood Falls which is leaking out 3 million year old microbes.
Travel media is generally terrible and so disappointing so often, Thuras says. VR feels like an opportunity to come closer to delight, wonder, and discovery in travel with a real sense of journey.
Can you talk a little bit about the gear involved?
Thuras says that it will get easier for this technology to reach mainstream status as the headsets get lighter and less clunky. VR is going to be a challenge when you need special gear thats not widely adopted, and sealing yourself off by putting something on your head is uncomfortable. Currently, this tech is lacking in practicality.
“While it’s a big hill to climb, I can imagine that five years from now we’ll have to ability to simply switch our devices to VR mode in an easy, mindless way.” — Thuras
Hernandez says that 360 film is a medium that is “pretty much solved”, as it has the ability to be published on platforms like Youtube or Facebook. VR should also be supported on these platforms in order to spread in the future.
What might happen with this technology in the next few years?
One of the most important issues right now is budget, the panel unanimously agrees. They don’t have the money to invest in this technology when there’s not the eyeballs or return on the investment.
We need devices as small and light as a watch, glasses, or phone, which can do what a PC does when it comes to processing power. We’re already seeing 5G being pushed across the world, which processes from a centralized network. This technology needs to be wireless and untethered to achieve the effect of walking around somewhere, and feeling like you’re really somewhere else.
On the tech and content end, they agree that in around 2–3 years from now we’ll have the tools to make this technology more widespread than it is now.
Topcuoglu gives the example of Oculus coming out with an untethered version for an inexpensive cost of around $200, and it functions like a computer fixed to your face. When it comes to difficulty with widespread adoption, it only takes one or two great experiences with the technology to really get that ball rolling, and when it eventually goes viral, other people will feel the urge to try it out for themselves. This just hasn’t happened yet. Right now, it’s mostly just the people with deeper pockets and superusers.
Hernandez had an interesting take on the evolution of technology through the years.
“In the past, If I had a pager I was a drug dealer. If I had a cell phone, I was Gordon Gecko. Now, that’s the same way we feel about the “glassholes” that used Google Glass back in 2013. But now, we can’t imagine walking out of the house without these things [cellphones]! We’ll eventually get them with the gateway drug of 360 video.”
Hernandez jokes.
Eren Aksu agrees that we’re still very much in the early days of this tech, and the headset as it exists today is directly comparable to the “brick model” of early cell phones.
Topcuoglu agrees that she believes glasses are where this technology is headed: “I think phones are out”, she says.
Hernandez poses the possibility of constant low-key computing, achieving what we can currently do on our phones but with less friction.
“I think VR is going to disrupt every aspect of our lives again.” — Hernandez
